Reply To: Sunday July 16 Wx

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John DeRosaJohn DeRosa
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    On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 07:12:39 AM CDT, SSI <> wrote:

    New topic posted by Don Grillo. Sunday July 16 Wx, In General Discussion forum.

    Not a good day for training flights or general flying. Visibility due to Canadian wildfire smoke and gusty winds will make of poor flying today.

    For your lesson today, find in the club Policy and Procedures manual wind and visibility limits.

    Flight Chairman


    From the National Weather Service:

     Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 For the 12Z TAFs...
        Main Forecast Concerns:
        * 2-5SM VSBY due to FU today
        * Chance for gusty SHRA with isolated embedded TS this evening
        Canadian wildfire smoke will envelop the region through Monday
        morning. Based off 11z hour observations of 2-5SM VSBY across the
        region, deeper mixing this afternoon should translate to a further
        reduction in VSBY, down to 2-3SM at the TAF sites, and as low as
        1SM at some airports. Westerly winds will gust up to 20-25 kt this
        afternoon, with a few gusts up to 25-30 kt possible.
        Mid-late this afternoon into the early evening, SHRA/TS chances
        will increase well south of the terminals. A cold front will
        approach from Wisconsin tonight. Out ahead of the front, scattered
        SHRA and isolated TS may develop southeastward this evening, with
        uncertainty regarding how much lightning the activity can
        generate. Some of the high resolution model guidance indicates an
        organized cluster or two of SHRA with a gusty outflow wind shift
        to northwest on the leading edge. For the 12z issuance, indicated
        a PROB30 for this scenario, though withheld TS mention in the PROB
        groups for now. Following any wind variability if an outflow
        driven wind shift does occur, winds will become light westerly
        overnight and then 290-310 deg near 10 kt on Monday morning.

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