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Here is the outlook for our deeply wet and stagnant weather pattern this weekend and continuing thereafter.
The prog chart for Saturday shows what has become a typically complicated series of low pressure systems linked together and not really going anywhere. In this case the low pressure system over southern Canada is linked by a northwest-southeast cold from to another low over western Iowa. The Iowa low appears poised to drive a warm front north across central Illinois this weekend. This is a pretty good structure for rain and perhaps thunderstorms, which are shown as a possibility.
Below is the prog chart for 24 hours later — Sunday morning. What is most significant is how little has changed.The prog chart for Sunday shows relatively little movement by the Iowa low, despite the passage of 24 hours. The bigger message from this sequence is the absence of the sort of progression that makes for weather changes that generates soaring conditions — namely that a Canadian polar airmass that pushes south, clears out the moisture and generates soaring conditions. Or, alternatively, we would happily accept the second best option: A west to east zonal flow with a north-south cold front pushed to the east across Illinois by a pacific zonal flow. The soaring conditions won’t be as strong as generated by the Canadian polar airmass, but will generate usable soaring conditions.
We have neither of these typical weather patterns ahead in the foreseeable future. Instead, we have what looks a lot like a cut off low parked over southern Canada or the upper midwest, and linked by a cold front that is not moving to another cut off cold front over western Iowa. Cut off lows are always bad news for soaring. We seem to be in a pattern in which they are the norm, not the exception.
The NWS dicsussion mostly focuses on what is of concern to the general public: the likelihood of rain and T-storms:Friday night: The overall pattern combined with guidance suggests the first round of convection will lift NE toward the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning in response to substantial WAA and moisture transport on a 45 kt low-level jet over northern MO into southwest IL. Impressive steepening of mid-level lapse rates over this forcing will support the development of nocturnal convection southwest of the CWA during the evening. Modest 1-6 km effective shear around 30 kts along with decent MUCAPE within the steep lapse rates will support a risk for organized severe convection. As has been the trend for the last day, most of the significant convection should remain south and west of the CWA where convergence is maximized on the nose of the LLJ. But as the LLJ veers through the night, some severe convection may reach roughly the southwest 2/3 of the CWA through daybreak Saturday. Again, severe convection, mainly in the form of large hail, will be possible with any of these storms. Uncertainty increases beyond Saturday morning as Friday night`s convection may slow the northeastward expansion of the warm sector through the CWA until late in the day and ultimately change where and when additional convection develops on Saturday. The forecast trend continues toward a slightly cooler (but still warmer than as of late) Saturday with a decent amount of convective debris clouds around as a convectively enhanced warm front remains south of the CWA. This should limit precip chances through the day to some degree given an overall absence of notable forcing. Have therefore continued the gradual trend toward a drier forecast. LLJ activity may then focus convection west of the CWA Saturday evening before veering and shifting storms into northern IL Saturday night. Additional rounds of storms will be possible through Monday morning until a trough axis clears the CWA during the day Monday.
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While its not necessary to double check this dismal forecast, here is the 3-degree spread as depicted for Saturday morning by Dr. Jack. There is no meaningful 3-degrees spread in our area.
The bottom line is that until we get a change in the prevailing weather pattern, any chance at soaring will be of short duration at best. And even those conditions won't do much good unless you have floats on your glider and towplane.
Those of us who were planning to attend the Sports Class Nationals at Caesar's Creek starting Saturday were relieved to learn today that the contest has been postponed until August 22. Perhaps by then we will have reverted to a more normal weather pattern, where cold fronts come along once or twice a week, clear out the moisture, dry the soil and permit gliders to operate.
See you at the airport -- someday.
- Mike
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Thanks for taking the time to post this Don!!
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Remember, Mikes forecast is geared toward cross country flying. The local weather at sky soaring this weekend may be fine for local training flights. See you at the field.
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I’m hoping to get some more winch launches using the long line (2000+ feet). I hope many of you will come out and join me for some excellent training.
—–Original Message—–
From: Sky Soaring <webmaster@skysoaring.com>
To: Arthurttu-
I can come out at 11ish
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