The forecast for today has changed. Forecast winds are now gusty out of the either the northeast or northwest depending on the lake breeze. I’ll keep an eye on it but may have to cancel as the winds may be over my crosswind limit for my glider. I’ll still be going out to the field though.
For the 12Z TAFs... Currently, a narrow band of showers over Lake Michigan is streaming southward toward GYY. The band of showers is being maintained by the confluence of winds via overnight land breezes, allowing for a westerly component to the winds at ORD/MDW (330-350). Just north of the band, a secondary surge of gusty north/northeasterly winds is thought to be occurring over the lake. Taken altogether, a challenging wind forecast remains primarily at ORD/MDW. Going forward, the expectation is the band of showers will remain offshore helping maintain the slight westerly component to the winds at ORD/MDW (though a VCSH remains warranted). Should the band manage to build inland, a flop to northeasterly winds is possible for a few hours before northwesterly winds become reestablished. Additionally, winds may become somewhat gusty for a few hours this morning as mixing commences before the influence of a building high pressure system slackens the low- level wind field. Finally, later today, a modest lake breeze is expected to push inland flopping winds northeasterly (again?) at ORD/MDW. Winds will become light and variable tonight, and then westerly (though still light) after daybreak Wednesday. Elsewhere, a more straight-forward (literally) forecast is in the cards with primarily north/northwesterly winds decreasing with time, and becoming and variable overnight. A scattered VFR cloud deck is possible this afternoon before easing to a few high clouds overnight.